2009: QB, OT, DE
2008: OT, DE, QB
2007: QB, WR, OT
2006: DE, RB, QB
2005: QB, RB, WR
2004: QB, OT, WR
2003: QB, WR, WR
2002: QB, DE, QB
2001: QB, OT, DT
2000: DE, OLB, OT
1999: QB, QB, QB
1998: QB, QB, DE
Top 3
QB: 15
RB: 2
WR: 5
TE: 0
OT: 6
G: 0
C: 0
DE: 6
DT: 1
OLB: 1
MLB: 0
CB: 0
S: 0
1st overall
QB: 9
OT: 1
DE: 2
Every other position: 0
Now, these numbers are no sure indicator of what will happen this year. However, the NFL is a copycat league so using the history to predict the future is not a bad idea. Going off of that, what does this all mean. No defensive tackle has been taken in the top 2 picks in the last 12 years. Only one has been taken in the top 3. In fact, you have to go back to 1994 to find a draft where a defensive tackle was taken first. Ndamukong Suh is an amazing prospect, but, with the Rams desperately needing a quarterback, and 9 of the past 12 #1 overall selections used on a quarterback, it makes a little bit more sense that they’d go that route. Remember 2008? Everyone was saying that the Falcons should take Glenn Dorsey (defensive tackle) at 3. Who’d they take? Matt Ryan, quarterback. I think if given the chance, they’d make that pick over and over again. Remember 2009? Everyone was saying that the Lions should take Aaron Curry (linebacker) first. Who’s the take? Matt Stafford, quarterback. Curry fell out of the top 3 completely. If a team in the top 3 needs a quarterback, they take one. I still think Suh doesn’t fall past Detroit and becomes the highest drafted defensive tackle of the past 12 years because he deserves that honor, but not #1. The Rams need a quarterback too badly.
Also, in the past 12 years, we have only had one draft where a quarterback did not go top 3. That year was just not a good year for quarterbacks. Only one went in the first round, Chad Pennington. He went 18th. There just were no elite quarterbacks in that draft, but in years where they are, they normally go top 3. Despite what Todd McShay says, and for more on why he’s wrong, click here, there are actually good quarterbacks in this draft class. Jimmy Clausen, Sam Bradford, I’d even argue Tim Tebow, but that’s a completely different article somewhere else, they are all elite quarterbacks. Remember, Todd McShay hated Matt Ryan too, said he wouldn’t use a top 15 pick on him, said the Ravens would have to reach for him to get him at 8. Again, Ryan went 3rd and took the Falcons to the playoffs in one year. I find it highly unlikely that both Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen will fall to the Redskins at 4.
Other things to notice, no defensive back has been taken in the top 3 in the last 12 years. We have to go to 1997, when the Seahawks drafted Shawn Springs out of Ohio State with the 3rd overall pick. That doesn’t bode well for Eric Berry, safety. In fact, we have to go to 1991 when the Browns drafted the late great Eric Turner with the 2nd overall pick to find a draft in which a safety went in the top 3. A little side note, as I’ve been researching this, all of the exceptions, DE Courtney Brown #1 overall in 2000, DT Gerald Warren #3 overall in 2001, Turner, they all come from the city of Cleveland for the most part. Now I understand why that franchise is in the miserable state they are in right now.
Another interesting fact, two drafts in NFL history have featured no offensive players in the top 3. The years? Not coincidentally right next to each other, 1991 and 1992. Remember what I said about the NFL being a copycat league. Obviously it wasn’t very effective otherwise they would have continued to copy, but the point is, for those mock drafters who have Suh, McCoy, Berry going top 3, not likely if we look at history.
One final thing that doesn’t pertain to this draft, but could to future drafts, only two players who were not quarterback, offensive tackles, defensive ends, running backs or wide receivers have gone in the top 3 over the last 12 years. It just so happens that those are the top 5 positions on my positional value chart. I don’t make these things up.
2008: OT, DE, QB
2007: QB, WR, OT
2006: DE, RB, QB
2005: QB, RB, WR
2004: QB, OT, WR
2003: QB, WR, WR
2002: QB, DE, QB
2001: QB, OT, DT
2000: DE, OLB, OT
1999: QB, QB, QB
1998: QB, QB, DE
Top 3
QB: 15
RB: 2
WR: 5
TE: 0
OT: 6
G: 0
C: 0
DE: 6
DT: 1
OLB: 1
MLB: 0
CB: 0
S: 0
1st overall
QB: 9
OT: 1
DE: 2
Every other position: 0
Now, these numbers are no sure indicator of what will happen this year. However, the NFL is a copycat league so using the history to predict the future is not a bad idea. Going off of that, what does this all mean. No defensive tackle has been taken in the top 2 picks in the last 12 years. Only one has been taken in the top 3. In fact, you have to go back to 1994 to find a draft where a defensive tackle was taken first. Ndamukong Suh is an amazing prospect, but, with the Rams desperately needing a quarterback, and 9 of the past 12 #1 overall selections used on a quarterback, it makes a little bit more sense that they’d go that route. Remember 2008? Everyone was saying that the Falcons should take Glenn Dorsey (defensive tackle) at 3. Who’d they take? Matt Ryan, quarterback. I think if given the chance, they’d make that pick over and over again. Remember 2009? Everyone was saying that the Lions should take Aaron Curry (linebacker) first. Who’s the take? Matt Stafford, quarterback. Curry fell out of the top 3 completely. If a team in the top 3 needs a quarterback, they take one. I still think Suh doesn’t fall past Detroit and becomes the highest drafted defensive tackle of the past 12 years because he deserves that honor, but not #1. The Rams need a quarterback too badly.
Also, in the past 12 years, we have only had one draft where a quarterback did not go top 3. That year was just not a good year for quarterbacks. Only one went in the first round, Chad Pennington. He went 18th. There just were no elite quarterbacks in that draft, but in years where they are, they normally go top 3. Despite what Todd McShay says, and for more on why he’s wrong, click here, there are actually good quarterbacks in this draft class. Jimmy Clausen, Sam Bradford, I’d even argue Tim Tebow, but that’s a completely different article somewhere else, they are all elite quarterbacks. Remember, Todd McShay hated Matt Ryan too, said he wouldn’t use a top 15 pick on him, said the Ravens would have to reach for him to get him at 8. Again, Ryan went 3rd and took the Falcons to the playoffs in one year. I find it highly unlikely that both Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen will fall to the Redskins at 4.
Other things to notice, no defensive back has been taken in the top 3 in the last 12 years. We have to go to 1997, when the Seahawks drafted Shawn Springs out of Ohio State with the 3rd overall pick. That doesn’t bode well for Eric Berry, safety. In fact, we have to go to 1991 when the Browns drafted the late great Eric Turner with the 2nd overall pick to find a draft in which a safety went in the top 3. A little side note, as I’ve been researching this, all of the exceptions, DE Courtney Brown #1 overall in 2000, DT Gerald Warren #3 overall in 2001, Turner, they all come from the city of Cleveland for the most part. Now I understand why that franchise is in the miserable state they are in right now.
Another interesting fact, two drafts in NFL history have featured no offensive players in the top 3. The years? Not coincidentally right next to each other, 1991 and 1992. Remember what I said about the NFL being a copycat league. Obviously it wasn’t very effective otherwise they would have continued to copy, but the point is, for those mock drafters who have Suh, McCoy, Berry going top 3, not likely if we look at history.
One final thing that doesn’t pertain to this draft, but could to future drafts, only two players who were not quarterback, offensive tackles, defensive ends, running backs or wide receivers have gone in the top 3 over the last 12 years. It just so happens that those are the top 5 positions on my positional value chart. I don’t make these things up.
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario